Cards & Probabilities

Ancient Skill cubes have a 85% chance of success. This is based on my combine history. From what I have seen so far, for any set of 5 combines the number of failures ranges from 0 to 2. For any set of 10 combines the number of failures ranges from 1 to 2. If you want to be certain that a combine will be successful, wait until after the second failure.

Dan's lil Trilly

ancient skills add 30% chance probability; don't know actual percent on reg skill cube

I think it's same as armors and weapons combining to +2 has higher succes propabilety as combining to +4. I think if you go high enough you can say 30% of ancient is your chance of succes and left over cance can almost be ignored. So I suggest a chance of 1/3 is realistic.

Attempts for a +2
4 Successful, 1 Failure

Attempts for a +3
2 Successful, 1 Failure

Attempts for a +4
2 Successful, 0 Failure

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Second Set of 10 Combines:

Attempts for a +2
6 Successful, 1 Failure

Attempts for a +3
3 Successful, 0 Failure

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3rd set of combines (15)

I had 5 failures of 15 combines, or a 66% of success. I failed trying to make a +4,+3,+3,+1,+1.

Adv. Probability of Success: 27/35 or 77%

This is a very small sample size. As the sample size grows, the sample probability will approach the actual probability. I am also making the assumption that the probability is a constant and that the probability does not vary with a timer.

Dan's lil Trilly